Special Election For Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional Seat Favors GOP Candidate Bill Russell

Left vacant by the unexpected death of Rep. John Murtha, the race for Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District is sure to heat up real soon. Most of the election rating sites like CQ Politics and the Cooks Political Report have already moved the election status to a tossup. Primarily because an open seat election is quite unpredictable.

By law Governor Ed Rendell has until February 18th to make a decision on the timing of the special election. After that Rendell has 60 days to hold a special election. Pennsylvania's regular primary is already scheduled for May 18, and Gov. Ed Rendell is expected to set the twelfth district’s special election for that date as well. Rendell, however, withheld the right to change his mind pending what leaders in Washington, D.C. desire.

Because of the abbreviated schedule, there will be no primary for the special election; each state party will simply choose a candidate to run in the special election. However both parties have different methods to choose a candidate so it will be interesting how it plays out.

50 members of the state Democratic Party's central committee will pick the Democratic candidate to run in the special election. State Sen. John Wozniak is the most commonly mentioned Democratic name at the moment. However former Lt. Gov. Mark Singel (D) has also been mentioned as a potential candidate. Both candidates have some challenges to overcome if chosen. Wozniak is tied to a very unpopular pay raise vote and Singel has been a Harrisburg lobbyist for over a decade.

On the Republican side local county committees will choose their candidate. Right now the favorite would have to be Bill Russell. A former Iraq War veteran who was defeated by Murtha in 2008. Other names have been floated around such as state Rep. Dave Reed, state Sen. Kim Ward, state Rep. Jeff Pyle and the 2006 GOP nominee and former Washington County Commissioner Diana L. Irey. All of which would have to quickly make a power play to wrestle the nomination away from Russell.

There is no doubt that Russell is sitting in the drivers seat. He has already announced his candidacy and has been raising money for his campaign. In fact, Russell was out raising Murtha. Russell reported an impressive total of $2,865,593 raised through Dec. 31, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission.

That dollar amount alone makes Russell the front runner. GOP county committee members who are even thinking about choosing another candidate over Russell to run in the special election risk losing this race for the GOP.

Russell is the right kind of candidate to serve the constituents of the 12 District. Even going head to head with Murtha last time he held Murtha to 58 percent of the vote. The lowest total since Murtha first ran in 1974. Like Murtha, Russell is a military veteran. The 12th District has a high number of WW II and Vietnam veterans that will most likely vote for him.

The national mood right now favor's a candidate like Russell. Russel is an outsider. He is not viewed as a political party insider or government crony. If Russell aligns him with national and local Tea Party groups there is no doubt he will win this election. In fact, I don't understand when you seriously look at the direction of this race why this seat isn't rated leaning Republican.