Updated: Ranking Republican Presidential Candidates: Would They Win Their Home State?

Below is a table ranking possible Republican Presidential candidates by the Home State Barometer. Governor Huckabee is removed, given his announcement that he will not run. The Barometer surprisingly shows that just 2 of the current 11 possible candidates would definitely win today their home state. The other 9 are clear losers or toss-ups back home.

Going from least likely to win their home state to most likely, here is the ranking:

1. Trump (New York)
2. Romney (Massachusetts)
3. Bachmann
4. Pawlenty (Minnesota)
5. Santorum (Pennsylvania)
6. Cain (Georgia)
7. Paul (Texas)--Toss-up
8. Gingrich (Georgia)--Toss-up
9. Palin (Alaska)--Toss-up
10. Daniels (Indiana)
11. Huntsman (Utah)

How predictive is the Home State Barometer of national political success? Pretty good.

Vice President Gore proves that you can win the national popular vote by more than 500,000 votes, lose your home state, and the Presidency. George McGovern and Walter Mondale demonstrate that losing your home state or struggling to hold it is a roadmap for losing 49 states. Senator McGovern lost South Dakota, his home state, lost 49 states, but won Massachusetts against President Nixon in 1972. Vice President Mondale barely won Minnesota, his home state, as he lost 49 states.

The Home State Barometer would have had Governor Huckabee winning Arkansas and so his decision not to run removes a formidable opponent to the President. Now the Barometer shows that President Obama wants any Republican other than Governor Huntsman or Governor Daniels.