By G. Terry Madonna & Michael L. Young
Revolutionary,
radical, iconoclast, insurrectionist—these are not words one usually
uses to describe Pennsylvania’s new governor, Tom Corbett. Yet if
Corbett achieves most or all of his announced first term agenda, he will
easily become the most transformative governor in modern state history.
Compared to Corbett, Tom Ridge was a slacker, Bob Casey a slouch, Dick Thornburgh a shirker, and Milton Shapp a mere idler.
Skeptical
that Corbett will pursue his ambitious agenda? Then consider this: most
governors, including recently departed Ed Rendell, actually accomplish
most of their aims in office. Contrary to much received wisdom, most
governors keep most of their promises most of the time.
Just
how sweeping is the Corbett change agenda? Its details won’t be
revealed until his budget speech in early March. But this much is clear:
Corbett and his Republican allies are proposing to remake state
government in ways not seen in anyone’s lifetime.
Massive
budget reductions are just the opening act. Corbett intends to shrink
state government, eliminate the state liquor monopoly, reduce business
taxes, institute school vouchers, pass lawsuit reform, restructure
public welfare, reform the state legislature, and much more.
And he has pledged to do all of this without raising taxes or fees.
What
sets Corbett so apart from his predecessors is the scope of his goals.
Past governors have run campaigns to “reform” and “change” the culture
in Harrisburg. Running against Harrisburg is not new. Nor are many of
Corbett’s ideas, such as privatizing liquor stores or instituting school
vouchers. Both Dick Thornburgh in the 1980s and Tom Ridge in the 1990s
pushed similar ideas.
What is new,
however, is that past governors never promised, as Corbett has, to
pursue their reform agendas while scrupulously avoiding taxincreases. In
fact, governors have done exactly the opposite during the last four
recessions dating back to the 1970s. They have sought their policy goals
by expanding the functions of state government and raising state taxes
to meet budget deficits.
Milton
Shapp illustrates the pattern. He won the governorship in 1970 not by
eschewing tax hikes, but by embracing them. During his successful
campaign he energetically called for the first permanent income tax in
state history. Similarly, both Dick Thornburgh in 1983 and Bob Casey in
1991 supported income tax hikes during recessionary years.
Corbett,
in marked contrast, has rejected any kind of tax hike, calling instead
for major downsizing of state government along with wide-ranging
privatization of governmental functions. He is attempting to tackle the
largest change agenda in a century. In the process, he aims to
fundamentally restructure the role and function of state government.
Can he do it?
Certainly
there are some reasons to expect him to succeed. As noted earlier, most
governors accomplish most of their agendas. Some, such as Ed Rendell,
end up relatively unpopular, while others, like Tom Ridge and Bob Casey,
leave office well liked. But liked or disliked, governors usually get
the job done.
A second reason to
expect Corbett to succeed is the nature of the legislature serving with
him. Since the infamous pay hike fiasco of 2005, almost half of the
state House and one third of the state Senate has been replaced
by new members, many of them committed to reform. Few, if any, past
governors have been blessed with a legislature more likely to oppose new
taxes, support privatization initiatives, and seek structural reforms
in state government—all key Corbett goals. Moreover, Corbett will be
aided by a new, vigorous GOP leadership dramatically more likely to
support fundamental structural change.
Nevertheless,
there are two huge unknowns, both largely beyond Corbett’s influence,
which may thwart him. One is the economy—how fast it will recover and
how much it will grow. If the recession should unexpectedly deepen or
the recovery slow materially, Corbett may have to deal with an even
larger deficit, adding considerable pressure to increase taxes.
The
second unknown is the amount of financial aid forthcoming from the
federal government. Presently, the outlook for substantial assistance
from Washington is not auspicious. Fewer federal dollars may generate
strong pressures to raise state taxes.
Finally,
perhaps the greatest unknown is Corbett himself. He is inmany ways a
blank slate. A career prosecutor, he has never served in the legislature
or Congress. Nor has he made policy as a member of the executive branch
he now heads. His ideology is largely unknown. How he will react to
unfolding challenges is impossible to forecast.
He
may, as other governors have done, react pragmatically to the myriad
challenges he faces, seeking solutions that work politically rather than
ideas that resonate ideologically. On the other hand, he may evolve
into the committed ideologue he has sometimes evoked, using his tenure
in office to push a transformative agenda and bring fundamental change
to state government.
Meanwhile, the
clock is ticking. Tom Corbett is going to work on what may be the
greatest set of challenges faced by any Pennsylvania governor in a
century. One thing, however, is certain. Either Pennsylvania is about to
experience dramatic change in a short period—or Tom Corbett is.
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